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development impact links

Weekly links March 23: recall revisited, Imbens critiques the Cartwright-Deaton RCT critiques, a new source for learning causal inference, and more...

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  • The bias in recall data revisited: On the Ifpri blog, Susan Godlonton and co-authors discuss their work on “mental anchoring” - the tendency to rely too heavily on only one piece of information (the "anchor") when making a decision – they use panel data where they ask people about both current outcomes, and to recall outcomes from a year ago. They find that people use their current outcomes as an anchor in trying to recall what happened a year ago “a $10 increase reported in the 2013 concurrent report for monthly income was associated with a $7.50 increase in the recalled monthly income for 2012”
  • Scott Cunningham posts his “mixtape” on teaching causal inference -  a textbook that may be of particular interest to many of our readers because of its applied focus, use of Stata examples and Stata datasets, and also coverage of some topics not found in many of the alternatives (e.g. directed acyclical graphs, synthetic controls).

Weekly links March 16: write more productively or fake it, null power, great figures, and more...

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Weekly links March 9: export super-stars, poor stats on poor women, psychosocial interventions for refugees, psychologists up their game, and more...

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  • Among the many posts on international women’s day, I thought our readers might find most useful this one on measurement of poverty and gender by Carolina Sanchez and Ana-Maria Munoz-Boudet “No, 70% of the world’s poor aren’t women, but this doesn’t mean poverty isn’t sexist
  • Emergency loans that are automatically given out when disaster hits as a substitute for microinsurance – summarized by Feed the Future – “Results ... show that the availability of emergency loans has had a big effect on how these farmers manage risk. Households who knew they were pre-qualified planted about 25 percent more rice than households who were not offered the emergency loan” (h/t Mushfiq Mobarak).
  • Video and slides from Ana Fernandes’ policy research talk on exporter dynamics, superstar firms, and trade policy – it is stunning how large a share of exports from many developing countries comes from the top 1% or even top 5 exporters.
  • Have you questioned your life choices enough lately? If not, Video of Lant Pritchett’s talk last month at NYU’s DRI on “The Debate about RCTs in Development is over. We won. They lost”

Weekly links March 2: quality onions, don’t just try to prove something you already know, jobs cost a lot to create, and more...

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Weekly links February 23: tell better stories, hot days = lower profits, women need more customers, and more...

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Weekly links Feb 16: when scale-ups don’t pan out the way you hoped, syllabi galore, do you suffer from this mystery illness? and more...

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  • Interesting blog from the Global Innovation Fund, discussing results from an attempt to replicate the Kenyan sugar daddies RCT in Botswana, why they got different results, and how policy is reacting to this. “At some point, every evidence-driven practitioner is sure to face the same challenge: what do you do in the face of evaluation results that suggest that your program may not have the impact you hoped for? It’s a question that tests the fundamental character and convictions of our organizations. Young 1ove answered that question, and met that test, with tremendous courage. In the face of ambiguous results regarding the impact of No Sugar, they did something rare and remarkable: they changed course, and encouraged government partners and donors to do so as well”
  • How to help farmers to access agricultural extension information via mobile phone? Shawn Cole (Harvard Business School) and Michael Kremer (Harvard University) gave a recent talk on this, drawing on work they’ve been doing in India, Kenya, Rwanda, and elsewhere. Video here and paper on some of the India results here.

Weekly links Feb 9: tracking Ghanaian youth as they age, envying Danish data, coding better, communicating less badly, and more....

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  • DEC has a fantastic lecture series going on at the moment. This week we had Pascaline Dupas. Videos of the talks are online. Of particular interest to our readers, will be her discussion of the techniques used for how they managed to re-interview 95% of Ghanaian youth after 10 years; and of how they messed up asking about labor market outcomes the first time they tried due to the sporadic nature of work for many youth (and something I hadn’t thought about – people working for the government whose payments have been delayed, so are owed back wages, but didn’t actually get paid in the last month).
  • In VoxEU, revealed vs reported preference – when asked if they saved or spent their stimulus payments, people’s answers were qualitatively informative of actual behavior seen from observed spending data; and when asked how much they spent, gives a reasonable measure of average spending propensity – but these questions aren’t so good at capturing which households respond more.

Weekly links Feb 2: hit the beach, develop a country! Female economists, go visit your alma maters! A Stata command round-up, and more...

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Weekly links January 26: learn to machine learn, that wellness program might only help with your multiple testing correction, working beats saving, and more...

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Weekly links Jan 19: soft skills and maybe a robot can’t take your job after all, the Starbucks indicator of Indian middle class growth, high fees are deterring citizenship, and more...

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  • On VoxEU, using Yelp data to track the local economy.
  • Ted Miguel on plans for long-term follow-ups of child health and cash transfer programs.
  • Priced out of citizenship? From Stanford News, with the cost of U.S. naturalization now $725, an experiment gave vouchers to cover these costs to low-income immigrants in NYC and found naturalization application rates rose 41%.
  • David Deming in the NBER reporter on the value of soft skills in the labor market: “the very term soft skills reveals our lack of understanding of what these skills are, how to measure them, and whether and how they can be developed... Social interaction is perhaps the most necessary workplace task for which there is currently no good machine substitute... Researchers ought to stop relying on convenient, off-the-shelf measures of soft skills and start creating metrics that are theoretically sound and suitable for the task at hand”